View source for Intelligence Analysis: A Crash Course

'''Intelligence Analysis: A Crash Course'''

Special Topic PHI 579, Fall 2019

'''Registration''': 
:Class#: [http://www.buffalo.edu/class-schedule?switch=showclass&semester=fall&division=GRAD&dept=PHI&regnum=24032 24032] (PHI)

'''Instructors''': [http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/shortcv.htm Barry Smith], [http://davidglimbaugh.com/ David Limbaugh]

'''Prerequisites''': Open to all persons with an undergraduate degree.

'''Office hours''': By appointment via email at [mailto:phismith@buffalo.edu phismith@buffalo.edu] or [mailto:dglimbau@buffalo.edu dglimbau@buffalo.edu]

== '''The Course''' ==
''Course Description'': This course will provide an introduction to intelligence analysis, covering both the practical and the theoretical aspects of the intelligence process. We will cover a range of topics including: the nature and goals of intelligence analysis; the cognitive processes involved; the different types of evidence used; analytical reasoning; the role of AI and other forms of computer support to intelligence analysis.

''Course Structure'': This is a three credit hour graduate seminar, with a practical exercise forming part of each class. The final session will be structured around youtube videos created by the students in the class. Students will be trained in the basic tools and methods of intelligence analysis, and will also receive an insight into the overall context into which intellligence analysis fits.

''Target Audience'': The course is open to all interested students, and will presuppose no knowledge of philosophy or of intelligence analysis.

''Intelligence Analysis in Buffalo'': UB scientists are involved in a variety of projects in which intelligence analysis plays a role, and some of the intelligence community collaborators in these projects will be involved in the teaching.

'''Schedule:'''

==August 26: Introduction: Will World War 3 be fought on the internet?==

Will the World War 3 be fought on the internet?
:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Next-War-On-Internet Slides] 
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVcIud4I7Ok Video]

An Introduction to the Joint Doctrine Ontology 
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/6jst6ri1hxljzz23gih5bench9ibkozh Slides] 
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqrVmlHOqC4 Video]

==September 9: Ontology and the Intelligence Process ==

Will feature presentation by [https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-mandrick-ph-d-29b88214/ COL William Mandrick, PhD] on 

'''The Intelligence Process'''

[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Joint-Intelligence Slides]

[https://buffalo.box.com/s/7v7dkuo3aw85ykvzno75ej2thshxwa6p Video]

Background reading: [https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp2_0.pdf Joint Intelligence]

==September 16: An Introduction to Basic Formal Ontology==

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/ICBO-2019-BFO-Tutorial Slides]
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0buEjR3t8A Video]

==September 23: Object-Based Production and Referent Tracking==

:Introduction to Object-Based Production
:Agent-Based Intelligence and the philosophy of action

Werner Ceusters, Shahid Manzoor, "[http://www.referent-tracking.com/RTU/files/CeustersICbookRevised/1.0/CeustersICbookRevised.pdf How to track absolutely everything]", ''Ontologies and Semantic Technologies for the Intelligence Community'' (Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications), 2010, 13-36.

==September 30: Enhanced Object-Based Production==
:RDF triples and Linked Open Data
:Tracking change and tracking errors

:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/im6x8svoq342e6ta6cto4ejzp2ejdmxi Slides]

Frederik Stjernfelt, "[https://buffalo.box.com/s/aasageqt6i8pxw96n417qjxqzd1fj4r2 The ontology of espionage in reality and fiction]", ''Sign Systems Studies'', 31:1 (2003), 133-161

Werner Ceusters and Barry Smith, "[https://philpapers.org/archive/CEUATF.pdf Aboutness: Towards Foundations for the Information Artifact Ontology"], Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Biomedical Ontology (ICBO). CEUR vol. 1515. pp. 1-5 (2015).

==October 7: Joint Doctrine Ontology==

:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/6jst6ri1hxljzz23gih5bench9ibkozh Slides] 
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqrVmlHOqC4 Video]

Peter Morosoff, Ron Rudnicki, Jason Bryant, Robert Farrell, Barry Smith, "[http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1523/STIDS_2015_T01_Morosoff_etal.pdf Joint Doctrine Ontology: A Benchmark for Military Information Systems Interoperability]", ''Semantic Technology for Intelligence, Defense and Security'' (STIDS), 2015, CEUR vol. 1523, 2-9.

'''Readings''':
:[http://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/dictionary.pdf Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms]
:[http://stids.c4i.gmu.edu/papers/STIDS_2015_T01_Morosoff_etal.pdf P. Morossof et al., "Joint Doctrine Ontology: A Benchmark for Military Information Systems Interoperability" (2015)]

==October 14: Meaningful AI vs. Deep Learning ==

Jobst Landgrebe and Barry Smith, "[https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02918.pdf Making AI Meaningful Again]", ''arXiv'', 2019.

:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/s75lli47d3fr7q5pix5a59xg8lb0n6d3 Slides] 

Jobst Landgrebe and Barry Smith, "[https://arxiv.org/pdf/1906.05833.pdf Why Turing machines cannot pass the Turing test]", ''arXiv'', 2019.

==October 21: Ontology of Terrorism ==

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Ontology-of-Terrorism Slides]
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4lg1_-XpiE Video]

:[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328145335_From_Affective_Science_to_Psychiatric_Disorder_Ontology_as_a_Semantic_Bridge R. R. Larsen and J. Hastings, "From Affective Science to Psychiatric Disorder: Ontology as a Semantic Bridge" (2018)]

==October 28: Ontology of Documents ==

From Speech Acts to Document Acts

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Speech-Acts-to-Document-Acts Slides]

IAO-Intel

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/IAO-Intel-October-28-2019 Slides]

"[http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/STIDS-2013.pdf IAO-Intel: An Ontology of Information Artifacts in the Intelligence Domain]”, ''Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Semantic Technologies for Intelligence, Defense, and Security'', Fairfax, VA (STIDS 2013), 33-40.

==November 4: Ontology of Normative Entities ==

Deontic Entities in Basic Formal Ontology

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Deontic-Entities-in-BFO Slides]

==November 11: Capabilities / Deep Learning==

Capabilities

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/capabilities-summary-Nov11 Slides]

:''Reading''
:[https://philarchive.org/archive/MERMC Eric Merrell, et al., "Mental Capabilities", ICBO, 2019]

Overview of machine learning and other approaches to the exploitation of Big Data 

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Turing-Test-and-Limits-on-AI Slides]

:''Reading''
:[http://arxiv.org/abs/1801.00631 G. Marcus (2018), "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal"]

==November 18: Semantics for the Intelligence Analyst / The Information Ontology ==

Semantics for the Intelligence Analyst

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Data-Sharing-and-Semantics Reading]

The Information Ontology

:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBKsupBquok&list=PLyngZgIl3WTi9ez4OjbXDlYtLb-vSxLHc Video]

:Reading:
:Werner Ceusters and Barry Smith, "[https://philpapers.org/archive/CEUATF.pdf Aboutness: Towards Foundations for the Information Artifact Ontology]", ''Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Biomedical Ontology'' (ICBO). CEUR vol. 1515. pp. 1-5 (2015).

==November 25: Ontology and Data Fusion==

James Llinas: An Introduction to Information Fusion

:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Information-Fusion Slides]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/azi2r25rbnwxd4riuzn0l5quxu3n2m8d Video]

==December 2: Student Projects ==

1:00 Visiting speaker from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab

1:45 Alec Sculley
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/0r6d8xz2yt6cbm0ui0toff4pek0qh9y4 Slides]

2:00 Elizabeth Barnes
:[https://youtu.be/Lu671EhCg3c Video]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/eovaeeh3ae2khniqjeb0ivl23f8wh2tf Slides] 
 
2:15 Alex Bernstein: An Ontology of Tenets and Paradigms
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ishY_TufRqI Video]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/8rzftabk9pjh543th0688dr2v33vzkxd Slides]

2:30 Kiernan Johnson
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/8rv0aycn6t0zm7fpqs3rlbhhcxe2tt92 Slides]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/v/Animal-Habitat-Ontology Animal Habitat Ontology]

2:45 Eric Merrell 
:[https://youtu.be/nGF3enVOjZo Video]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/7q9dt7uxkt70i6myof7k3wja3jcvnpok Slides]
:[https://philarchive.org/archive/MERMC Paper]

3:00 Gloria Sanso: Criminal Organization Ontology
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/khumpktgyzf81pvl6hpmnaf460mj6trm Slides]

3:15 Yifan Wang: Place Name Resolution 
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZaH7ykPQFE Video]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/xlwnp3il7a2mt177socucpmsrh3j1d6d Slides]

3:30 Wugetemole: Personal Name Ontology
:[https://buffalo.box.com/s/7qg1n72u0sfefsnpb8wd7uewz8cjhjn3 Slides]

3:45 Yusheng Xia: Ontology of the Magic System in Web Novels
:[https://youtu.be/aARC3VxV_Ic Video]
:[https://buffalo.box.com/shared/static/tpt1n0wlbn4wd6wcpvigwkjal7a879rh.pptx Slides]

=='''Reading'''== 

[https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp2_0.pdf Joint Intelligence] (to be read in advance of COL Mandrick class on September 9)

Robert Arp, Barry Smith and Andrew Spear, [https://mitpress.mit.edu/index.php?q=books/building-ontologies-basic-formal-ontology Building Ontologies with Basic Formal Ontology], Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, August 2015. 

Barry Smith, Tatiana Malyuta, David Salmen, William Mandrick, Kesny Parent, Shouvik Bardhan, Jamie Johnson, "[http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/Crosstalk-Nov2012.pdf Ontology for the Intelligence Analyst]", ''CrossTalk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering'', November/December 2012, 18-25.

Terry Janssen, Herbert Basik, Mike Dean, Barry Smith, "[http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/Semantic_Reasoning_Framework.pdf A Multi-INT Semantic Reasoning Framework for Intelligence Analysis Support]", in: L. Obrst, T. Janssen, W. Ceusters (eds.), Ontologies and Semantic Technologies for the Intelligence Community (Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications), Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2010, 57-69. 

David Salmen, Tatiana Malyuta, Alan Hansen, Shaun Cronen, Barry Smith, [http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/STIDS_2011.pdf Integration of Intelligence Data through Semantic Enhancement]", Proceedings of the Conference on Semantic Technology in Intelligence, Defense and Security (STIDS), George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, November 16-17, 2011, CEUR, Vol. 808, 6-13. 

Barry Smith, Tatiana Malyuta, William S. Mandrick, Chia Fu, Kesny Parent, Milan Patel, "http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/Horizontal-integration.pdf Horizontal Integration of Warfighter Intelligence Data. A Shared Semantic Resource for the Intelligence Community]", Proceedings of the Conference on Semantic Technology in Intelligence, Defense and Security (STIDS), George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, October 23-25, 2012, CEUR 996, 112-119. 

----

== '''Student Learning Outcomes''' ==
          
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Program Outcomes/Competencies  
! Instructional Method(s)
! Assessment Method(s)
|-
| The student will acquire a knowledge of the principles and procedures of intelligence analysis, and an insight into the philosophical methods and theories relevant thereto. The student will also acquire a familiarity with current theoretical research in areas relating to intelligence analysis. 
| Lectures and class discussions
| Review of reading matter and associated online content and participation in class discussions
|-
| The student will acquire experience in practical tasks involved in intelligence analysis
| Participation in practical experiments
| Review of results 
|-
| The student will acquire experience in communicating the results of work on intelligence analysis and its philosophical understanding
| Creation of youtube presentation and of associated documentation
| Review of results
|}

=='''How to Write an Essay'''==
[https://web.archive.org/web/20191209181112/https://jordanbpeterson.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Essay_Writing_Guide.docx Jordan Peterson's Essay Writing Guide]

=='''Important Dates'''==
{|
|  Sep 20 || - about now start to discuss by email the content of your video and essay with Drs Smith and Limbaugh
|-
|   Sep 28 || - submit a proposed title and abstract
|-
|   Oct 31 || - submit a table of contents and 300 word summary plus draft of associated ppt slides
|-
|   Nov 20 || - submit penultimate draft of essay and powerpoint
|-
|   Dec2 || - class presentation
|-
|   Dec 4 || - submit final version of essay and powerpoint and upload final version of video to youtube
|}

=='''Grading'''==

Grading will be based on two factors: 

I: understanding and criticism of the material presented in classes 1-13

All students are required to take an active part in class (and where relevant on-line) discussions throughout the semester. 

II: preparation of a youtube video and associated documentation (including powerpoint slides and essay). 

Content and structure of the essay should be discussed with Drs Smith or Limbaugh. Where the essay takes the form of the documentation of a specific ontology developed by the student it should include:
:Statement of scope of the ontology
:Summary of existing ontologies in the relevant domain
:Explanation of how your ontology differs from (or incorporates) these ontologies
:Screenshots of parts of the ontology with some examples of important terms and definitions
:Summaries of potential applications of the ontology

'''Grading Policy:''' Grading follows standard [http://grad.buffalo.edu/Academics/Policies-Procedures/Grading-Procedures.html Graduate School policies]. Grades will be weighted according to the following breakdown:

Weighting	Assignment
:40%    - class discussions  
:20%    - youtube video presentation
:20%    - powerpoint slides 
:20%    - essay / ontology content 

'''Final Grades'''

Percentages refer to sum of assignment grades as listed above

Grade	Quality Percentage
{|
|  A	|| 4.0	|| 90.0% -100.00%
|-
| A-	|| 3.67	|| 87.0% - 89.9%
|-
| B+	|| 3.33	|| 84.0% - 86.9%
|-
| B	|| 3.00	|| 80.0% - 83.9%
|-
| B-	|| 2.67	|| 77.0% - 79.9%
|-
| C+	|| 2.33	|| 74.0% - 76.9%
|-
| C	|| 2.00	|| 71.0% - 73.9%
|-
| C-	|| 1.67	|| 68.0% - 70.9%
|-
| D+	|| 1.33	|| 65.0% - 67.9%
|-
| D	|| 1.00	|| 62.0% - 64.9%
|-
| F	|| 0	|| 61.9% or below
|}

An interim grade of Incomplete (I) may be assigned if the student has not completed all requirements for the course. An interim grade of 'I' shall not be assigned to a student who did not attend the course. The default grade accompanying an interim grade of 'I' shall be 'U' and will be displayed on the UB record as 'IU.' The default Unsatisfactory (U) grade shall become the permanent course grade of record if the 'IU' is not changed through formal notice by the instructor upon the student's completion of the course.

Assignment of an interim 'IU' is at the discretion of the instructor. A grade of 'IU' can be assigned only if successful completion of unfulfilled course requirements can result in a final grade better than the default 'U' grade. The student should have a passing average in the requirements already completed. The instructor shall provide the student specification, in writing, of the requirements to be fulfilled.

The university’s Graduate Incomplete Policy can be found [http://grad.buffalo.edu/study/progress/policylibrary.a-to-z.html#iugrade here].

=='''Related Policies and Services'''==

'''Academic integrity''' is a fundamental university value. Through the honest completion of academic work, students sustain the integrity of the university while facilitating the university's imperative for the transmission of knowledge and culture based upon the generation of new and innovative ideas. See http://grad.buffalo.edu/Academics/Policies-Procedures/Academic-Integrity.html. 

'''Accessibility resources:''' If you have any disability which requires reasonable accommodations to enable you to participate in this course, please contact the Office of Accessibility Resources in 60 Capen Hall, 645-2608 and also the instructor of this course during the first week of class. The office will provide you with information and review appropriate arrangements for reasonable accommodations, which can be found on the web [http://www.buffalo.edu/studentlife/who-we-are/departments/accessibility.html here].

== '''Background Reading and Video Materials''' ==

*[http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/ Streaming video presentations and training courses in ontology]

*[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050913000690 Concept Analysis to Enrich Manufacturing Service Capability Models]

*[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166361514000438 Supply Chain Management Ontology]

*[http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40436-014-0073-2 Ontology-based interoperability solutions for textile supply chain]

*[http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/ontologies.htm Ontology: An Introduction]

*[http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/articles/Horizontal-integration.pdf Horizontal Integration of Warfighter Intelligence Data]

*[http://ncorwiki.buffalo.edu/index.php/Ontology_for_Intelligence,_Defense_and_Security Ontology for Intelligence, Defense and Security (2012)]

*[http://militaryontology.org Military Ontology]